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Market Roundup

•Feb US CPI in line with expectations

•US indexes up: Dow 1.06%, S&P 1.68%, Nasdaq 2.14%

•US Feb CPI Index, s.a   301.65,300.54 previous

•US Feb CPI, n.s.a (MoM)  0.56%,0.80% previous

•US Feb CPI Index, n.s.a.   300.84,300.86 forecast, 299.17 previous

•US Feb Real Earnings (MoM) -0.4%, 0.7% previous

•US Feb Core CPI (YoY)   5.5%,5.5% forecast,5.6% previous

•US Feb CPI (YoY) 6.0%, 6.0% forecast,6.4% previous

•Canada Jan Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 4.1%,  3.9% forecast, -1.5% previous

•US Feb  CPI (MoM)  0.4%,0.4%  forecast, 0.5% previous

•US Feb  Core CPI (MoM)  0.5%,0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous

•US Feb Core CPI Index  304.07,302.70 previous

•Redbook (YoY) 2.6%,3.0% previous

•US Feb Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.6%,  0.7% previous

•US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 1.155M,-3.835M previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)

•02:00   China Feb Industrial Production (YoY)  2.6% forecast,1.3% previous

•02:00   China Feb Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY)  3.6% previous

•02:00   China Feb Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) -0.25% previous

•02:00   China Feb Retail Sales (YoY)  3.5% forecast,-1.8% previous

•02:00   China Feb Chinese Unemployment Rate   5.5% previous

•02:00   China Feb Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)  4.4% forecast,5.1% previous

Looking Ahead Events And Releases(GMT)

•23:50   Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes             


EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Tuesday as growing optimism that ECB will raise interest rate at next meeting  supported euro. Investors are   keenly awaiting the European Central Bank's interest rate hike decision on Thursday, which is expected to be a 50-basis point. The ECB has already tightened monetary policy by 3 percentage points since July. ECB President Christine Lagarde said recently a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike  is very, very likely . The euro was up 0.01% on the day, having gained 1.51% in a month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0738 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0781(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0665 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards  1.0609(5DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling dipped against the dollar on Tuesday, but still traded near its one-month high hit a day earlier after market turmoil led to a dramatic pullback in U.S. rate expectations and short-term yields and sent the greenback tumbling.U.S. inflation data due later in the day will also have an effect on currencies, though while a week ago it was seen as one of the month’s main events for markets its consequences will likely be somewhat swamped by recent volatility. The pound was 0.2% lower against the dollar at $1.2159 , just off the previous day’s top of $1.220, its highest since Feb. 14.  Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2180 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2221(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1981(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1931(5DMA).

USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices fell and the greenback slightly gained after US CPI data. The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at C$1.3678 to the greenback, or 73.11 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3652 to 1.375. Canadian government 10-year bond yields rose 6.7 basis points to 2.847%. The yield on similar U.S. government benchmark debt rose to 3.6358%. U.S. April crude futures fell $3.47 to settle at $71.33 a barrel on Tuesday. Canadian factory sales rose 4.1% in January from January, Statistics Canada said. Analysts polled   had expected factory sales growth of 3.9%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3740 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3753 (5DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3650(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3583(50%fib).

USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Tuesday after strong consumer price data revived the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next week as fears of turmoil spreading in the banking sector faded. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January. In the 12 months through February, the CPI increased 6.0%, a slower pace than the 6.4% annualized gain in January, but still far off the Fed's 2% target. The dollar strengthened 0.69% at 134.13 per Japanese yen Strong resistance can be seen at 133.30(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 134.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 133.06(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 132.44(Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European shares on Tuesday posted their biggest single-day gain in nearly three months, helped by a resilient outlook for the region's banking sector in the face of Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) collapse and growing optimism over a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.17 percent, Germany's Dax ended up  by 1.84 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.86 percent.

U.S. stocks bounced back on Tuesday as largely on-target inflation data and easing jitters over contagion in the banking sector cooled expectations regarding the size of the rate hike at the Federal Reserve's policy meeting next week.

Dow Jones closed up  by  1.06% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.65% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.14%  percent.

Treasuries Recap

U.S. Treasury yields moderately extended gains on Tuesday after U.S. inflation numbers rose last month, suggesting some expectation that the Federal Reserve could continue to raise interest rates next week though at a gradual pace despite concerns about liquidity in the banking sector.

U.S. Treasury two-year yield rose 28 basis points to 4.317%  , while the benchmark 10-year yield gained 9 bps to 3.594%  .

Commodities Recap

Gold fell on Tuesday as a rise in Treasury yields took the shine off bullion’s recent rise that was driven by the U.S. banking crisis, while an uptick in U.S. inflation in February raised more questions than answers on interest rates.

Spot gold fell 0.2% to $1,909.55 per ounce by 2:18 p.m. EDT (1818 GMT). U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to settle at $1,910.90.

Oil prices dropped over 4% to a three-month low on Tuesday after a U.S. inflation report and the recent U.S. bank failures sparked fears of a fresh financial crisis that could reduce future oil demand.

Brent futures fell $3.32, or 4.1%, to settle at $77.45 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $3.47, or 4.6%, to settle at $71.33.

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